Soybeans - Just My Opinion
Tom Fritz of International Futures Group - - Thu Nov 08, 3:09PM CST

Nov Soybeans closed .25 cent lower ($8.67.5), March .25 cent lower ($8.92) & July .25 cent lower ($9.18.25)

Dec Soybean Meal closed $1.9 lower ($306.1), March $1.3 lower ($310.7) & July $0.2 lower ($316.0)

Dec Soybean Oil closed 18 pts lower ($28.02), March 18 pts lower ($28.51) & July 18 pts lower ($29.10)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales 388.4 K T. old crop vs. 400-700 K T. expected 3.0 K T. new crop vs. none expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales 255.1 K T. old crop vs. 200-450 K T. expected 0.9 K T. new crop vs. none expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales 22.4 K T. old crop vs. 8-30 K T. expected no new crop vs. none expected

Highlights of the USDA Soybean Report US lowers yield 1.0 bpa leads to a reduction in production 90 million bu. crush was increased 10 million bu., exports were reduced 160 million bu., seed usage was cut by 7 million bu. carryout increased 70 million bu. World multiple revisions to Chinese soybean production did not have the impact on the World data as it did in the grain data with Chinese data in the mix World carryout increased by 2.04 M T. take Chinese data out of the mix and the World carryout still increased by 2.96 M T.

With or without China revisions I saw nothing supportive to the USDA soybean data. The complex did sell off from the data but managed to retrace a good portion of the losses. The rally off of the days lows is all about the wishing & hoping that the US and China will reach some sort of an accord over the ongoing trade rift. I believe there will be some discussions in Washington tomorrow (involving advisors, not decision makers) and then the big meeting between the two leaders at the G-20 Summit on Nov 30th, Dec 1st. Given todays price action the complex will not break down given the hopes for an accord but given we dont have an accord yet the upside will remain limited for the time being.

After recent advances in the soybean river basis it turns mixed on Thursday; still some locations increasing the basis while others are easing. Processors are quiet with their basis and rightly so given the recent sharp break in Board crush margins. The Gulf still reads firm with Wednesday nights posting but this I think is due to light movement and cheap freight. Soybean spreads ran mostly unchanged on the day within the current crop year while losing to the new crop. Offers to sell cash soybean meal continue to look for buyers and given the motion in the meal spreads they are not finding any.

Until we have a better handle on the outcome of the China/US trade talks the soybean complex is going nowhere. Well look ugly and not follow through just like well try to look good and not follow through. If you want to trade the sideways watch your shorter term price charts (the inter-day charts) looking for short term extremes to fade for short term trades.

Daily Support & Resistance for 11/09

Jan Soybeans: $8.70 - $8.90

Dec Soybean Meal: $303.0 - $309.5

Dec Soybean Oil: $27.60 - $28.45
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