Wheat - Just My Opinion
Tom Fritz of International Futures Group - InsideFutures.com - Thu Aug 09, 2:45PM CDT

Sept Chgo Wheat closed 5.5 cents lower ($5.64.50), Dec 4.75 cents lower ($5.86.50) & March 4.5cents lower ($6.07)

Sept KC Wheat closed 5.75 cents lower ($5.78.50), Dec 6.5 cents lower ($6.04.25) & March 5.5 cents lower ($6.24.25)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales 317.1 K T. old crop vs. 200-500 K T. expected no new crop vs. none expected

USDA Guesstimates - US Wheat production - 1.850 billion bui. - Projected US carryout - 961 million bu. - Projected World carryout - 256.42 M T.

Are growing conditions in the areas of concern overseas easing? Is it too little too late? Canada and Australia are staying hot & dry. I think the trade on Thursday just took a cautious approach to tomorrows USDA report. That holds true with the European markets as well. Trying to second guess the USDA can be a lesson in frustration despite the belief that World production, projected carryout, will take a noticeable hit.

I see no changes in the advertised interior wheat basis. The Gulf basis for wheat, too, runs unchanged. Despite the diea we are going to see better wheat business going forward spreads have been on the defensive for the last week or so. Weekly export sales remain nothing to write home about.

Earlier this week Chgo wheat challenged the interim high we saw last Thursday and failed to follow through. KC wheat managed to pump out new highs beyond the interim high we saw last week and failed to follow through. Without a noticeable friendly report from the USDA tomorrow I can technically justify another 15-25 cent to the downside. For what it is worth European wheat futures have a bit of a toppy look to them.

Daily Support & Resistance for 08/10

Dec Chgo Wheat: $5.75 ($5.60) - $6.13 (?)

Dec KC Wheat: $5.90 ($5.80) - $6.26 (?)

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