AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn Market Commentary

September 25, 2018

Corn futures are showing steady trade or fractional losses at midday. USDA reported a private export sale of 239,630 MT of 18/19 corn to Mexico thorough their daily reporting system. Much of the Corn Belt is moving at a faster than normal harvest pace according to the Crop Progress report. That may be slowed by wet conditions later this week. Condition ratings in NE were down 1 point, with IA steady, MN up 3 and IL 4 points higher. The quarterly Grain Stocks report from the USDA will be released on Friday, with the average trade estimate for September 1 corn stocks at 2.01 bbu. That would be an 8 mbu increase from the September WASDE 17/18 US ending stocks projection if realized.

DEC 18 Corn is at $3.60, down 1/2 cent,

MAR 19 Corn is at $3.72 1/2, unch,

MAY 19 Corn is at $3.80, down 1/4 cent

JUL 19 Corn is at $3.85 3/4, unch

Soybeans Market Commentary

September 25, 2018

Soybean futures are trading 3 to 4 cents higher at the moment. Nearby soy meal is up $1.90/ton, while soy oil 6 points higher. A 24-hour union strike in Argentina has closed ports in Rosario on Tuesday. Friday’s Grain Stocks report, released at 11 a.m. CDT, is expected to show 398 mbu of soybean stocks on September 1. That is a buildup of 96 mbu from last year and 3 points higher than the Sept S&D table. As of Sunday, each of the 18 reported states were matching or ahead of their normal harvest pace except Arkansas. Soybean condition ratings in NE were down 3 points, with NC seeing the largest loss following Hurricane Florence, down 34. MN saw a 9 point improvement, with IA up 2 and IL 3 points higher.

NOV 18 Soybeans are at $8.44 3/4, up 3 3/4 cents,

JAN 19 Soybeans are at $8.58 3/4, up 3 1/2 cents,

MAR 19 Soybeans are at $8.71 1/2, up 3 cents,

MAY 19 Soybeans are at $8.85, up 3 cents,

OCT 18 Soybean Meal is at $306.60, up $1.90,

OCT 18 Soybean Oil is at $28.32, up $0.06

Wheat Market Commentary

September 25, 2018

Wheat futures are currently 5 to 8 1/4 cents lower in the nearby contracts on Tuesday. The average trade guess ahead of Friday’s quarterly Grain Stocks report is for September 1 wheat stocks to be at 2.344 bbu, 3% larger than last year, on lackluster demand. As of September 23, NASS showed 21% of the Kansas winter wheat crop had been planted, with OK at 27% and TX 30% complete. Taiwan is seeking 110,000 MT of US wheat, with offers due on October 2. Japan is tendering for 109,150 MT of wheat from the usual Australia, Canada, and US, with 49,470 MT US origin and the close on Thursday.

DEC 18 CBOT Wheat is at $5.18 3/4, down 8 1/4 cents,

DEC 18 KCBT Wheat is at $5.20 3/4, down 8 1/4 cents,

DEC 18 MGEX Wheat is at $5.79, down 5 1/4 cents

Cattle Market Commentary

September 25, 2018

Live cattle futures are mixed at midday, with nearby Oct down a dime and back months higher Feeder cattle futures are 10 to 55 cents in the green on Tuesday. The CME feeder cattle index on September 21 was up $1.05 at $157.34. Wholesale boxed beef values were higher on Tuesday morning. Choice boxes were up 38 cents to $206.54, while Select boxes were 45 cents higher at $195.84. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter at 119,000 head on Monday. That is up 5,000 from last week and 2,000 head above the same week in 2017. Monday’s Cold Storage report indicated that frozen stocks of beef on August 31 were a monthly record 503.449 million pounds. That was 3.99% larger than the end of July and 5.64% above August 2017.

OCT 18 Cattle are at $112.075, down $0.100,

DEC 18 Cattle are at $117.050, up $0.050,

FEB 19 Cattle are at $121.425, up $0.125,

SEP 18 Feeder Cattle are at $156.550, up $0.100

OCT 18 Feeder Cattle are at $156.475, up $0.175

NOV 18 Feeder Cattle are at $156.475, up $0.550

Lean Hogs Market Commentary

September 25, 2018

Lean hog futures are showing 5 cent to $1.35 gains at midday. The CME Lean Hog Index was up $1.74 on September 21 to $60.85. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was a nickel higher on Tuesday morning at $80.07. The national base hog carcass value was $1.71 higher in this morning’s report at $62.31. FI hog slaughter on Monday was estimated at 472,000 head. That is up 56,000 head from last week and 13,000 head larger than the same week last year, with NC plants back up and running. Frozen pork stocks at the end of August were reported at 582.592 million pounds by the USDA. That was 5.99% larger than July and up 1.2% vs. August 2017. Belly stocks were shown at 34.969 million pounds, up 14% from July.

OCT 18 Hogs are at $62.350, up $1.350,

DEC 18 Hogs are at $57.025, up $0.050

FEB 19 Hogs are at $65.650, up $0.200

Cotton Market Commentary

September 25, 2018

Cotton futures are 50 to 147 points in the green on Tuesday. The Monday afternoon Crop Progress report showed that 58% of the US cotton crop had bolls open as of Sunday, with 16% harvested. The TX harvest only progressed 1% to 23, but was still 11% ahead of the normal pace for this time of year. The Brugler500 index saw a 5 point jump to 313 on a reduction in poor/very poor ratings. Ratings in NC dropped 36 points, with GA down 3. TX conditions were 8 points higher. The Cotlook A index was down 20 points from the previous day at 88.10 cents/lb on September 21. The USDA weekly AWP was updated to 71.59 cents/lb on Thursday, down 2.20 cents from the week prior.

OCT 18 Cotton is at 80.2, up 147 points,

DEC 18 Cotton is at 79.08, up 50 points

MAR 19 Cotton is at 79.56, up 60 points

MAY 19 Cotton is at 80.18, up 59 points


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com